Method

Five layers of the issue

1. World

Rates, the dollar, Fed liquidity, credit spreads, equities, volatility and commodities: the conditions set by the global market.

2. Transmission to crypto

The channels through which the backdrop reaches crypto: spot ETF flows, stablecoins, derivatives leverage, correlations, sentiment.

3. Crypto assets

Market regime, breadth, rotation, relative strength and an 18-instrument radar: direction, trend strength, volatility, levels.

4. Scenarios

Base and alternative scenarios, catalysts and explicit conditions that would change the view.

5. Verification

Public statements with a condition, deadline and source; automatic checks and an honest count.

How to read the radar

• Direction: EMA50 and EMA200 (1h): more than 1 ATR above both — up, below both — down, otherwise range
• Strength: |price − EMA200| in ATR: <1 → 0, 1–3 → 1, 3–6 → 2, ≥6 → 3 (0 for a range)
• Volatility: ATR(14, 1h) percentile over 480 hours: ≤20 compressed, ≥80 high
• Levels: largest limit-order clusters in the order book within ±4% of price; range — extremes of the last 24 closed hours

Data sources

Public market data: HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me (Fear & Greed index); economic calendar. All figures are as of the morning snapshot.

Schedule

The AKSHAR GROUP research committee meets at 08:00–08:40 MSK; the issue is assembled automatically from its materials and market data and published around 09:00 MSK. Times are given in MSK and UTC.

What we do not do

• No trading signals or personal advice; content is not tailored to any reader.
• No simulated or back-fitted results: the forecast count starts on the launch date of public issues.
• No paywalled sources the reader cannot verify.

An honest count of public forecasts

Open statements and counting rules →