Public forecast track record

Open statements

• open

  BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).

  Issue: October 5, 2026 · Deadline: 06.10 08:40 MSK · Checked against: HTX USDT perpetual BTC-USDT, hourly candles (close)
• open

  The 10-year UST yield (FRED DGS10, daily values) will not fall below 5.05% on any day from Oct 5 to Oct 12 inclusive (the high-rate regime will persist).

  Issue: October 5, 2026 · Deadline: 12.10 23:59 MSK · Checked against: FRED DGS10 (Market Yield on U.S. Treasury 10-Year, daily)

Checked statements

No statement has reached its check yet.

Counting rules

1. Only statements from public issues since October 5, 2026 count. Internal materials are excluded.
2. A statement is recorded at publication and never changed afterwards: condition, deadline, data source.
3. Checks are automatic, against public prices and data. No manual edits, no cherry-picking.
4. The hit rate is published only after 20 checked statements, so that a small sample does not mislead.
5. A statement is voided only if its data source is unavailable for the whole check window; such cases are shown separately.